Your trusted gateway to Texas real estate excellence. Whether you're buying your first home in vibrant North Texas or seeking a serene retreat in the picturesque Texas Hill Country, you've found the right resource. We deliver comprehensive market intelligence, expert guidance, and personalized service that transforms the complexities of real estate transactions into confident, informed decisions.
Our mission is simple: empower Texas home buyers and sellers with the data-driven insights, local expertise, and professional representation they need to succeed in today's dynamic market. From understanding current market conditions to navigating intricate negotiations, we're here to ensure your real estate journey is both rewarding and seamless.
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Whether you're a first-time buyer excited about improved affordability, a seller ready to capitalize on renewed buyer demand, or an investor seeking strategic opportunities in a normalizing market, now is the time to act with expert guidance.
The data clearly shows we're in a transition phase where knowledge, timing, and skilled representation make all the difference. Don't navigate this complex landscape alone. With my local expertise, industry connections, and commitment to your success, you'll have a trusted advisor every step of the way.
Let's discuss your goals, review current opportunities, and create a customized strategy that positions you for success in today's Texas real estate market.

Robert Wallgren
JPAR® Real Estate
TX Lic #0834615
Texas Real Estate Commission Consumer Protection Notice
Fort Worth | Dallas | Dripping Springs | Wimberly | Marble Falls | Hill Country
The Texas Housing Market Is Gaining Momentum — What It Means for You
After years defined by rate shock, frozen sellers, and hesitant buyers, the first quarter of 2026 is revealing a fundamentally different landscape. The data doesn't lie: we're witnessing the early stages of a genuine market shift, and understanding it now positions you to capitalize on emerging opportunities.
This isn't a return to the frenzied bidding wars of 2021, nor is it the stagnation of 2023-2024. Instead, we're entering a normalization phase where balanced supply and demand create favorable conditions for both buyers and sellers. Mortgage rates stabilizing near 6%, rising inventory levels, and renewed buyer confidence are converging to unlock a market that's been waiting to move.
For buyers, this means more choices and less competition. For sellers, it means qualified buyers are actively searching again. The agents and clients who recognize this shift first will secure the best opportunities.
Market Snapshot Q1 2026
  • Mortgage rates holding steady around 6.1-6.3%
  • Pending sales at multi-year highs
  • Inventory at 697K homes, up from 635K last year
  • Buyer applications up 18% from 2025
  • Market at 2.6 months of supply
Buyer Demand Is Surging: The Numbers Tell the Story
Purchase mortgage applications and pending home sales both posted impressive gains—not just week over week, but year over year. This dual momentum signals something significant: buyers aren't just dipping their toes back in the water; they're diving in with renewed confidence.
January 2026 revealed a consistent and encouraging trend in weekly pending contracts, showcasing improving buyer engagement that goes beyond typical seasonal rebounds. We observed a steady climb throughout the month: Jan 2: 30,538 → Jan 9: 39,841 → Jan 16: 50,096 → Jan 23: 56,252. This sustained growth, culminating in a remarkable 18% year-over-year increase in purchase applications, demonstrates a clear return of activity to the market. With four consecutive weeks of positive results, the beginning of 2026 sets a strong precedent.
56,252
Weekly Pending Sales
Highest level in several years, up from 52,165 in 2025
18%
Application Growth
Year-over-year increase in purchase mortgage applications
4/4
Positive Weeks
Consistent positive weekly growth throughout January 2026
Mortgage Rates: Stability Despite Global Volatility
Even with dramatic global financial events—including the Davos summit and significant volatility in Japan's bond market requiring U.S.-Japan intervention plans—mortgage rates have demonstrated remarkable resilience. As of February 4, 2026, the 30-year fixed conforming rate stands at 6.09%, with rates having consistently hovered between 6.07% and 6.26% in recent weeks. This sustained stability, remaining well within the forecasted 5.75-6.75% range for 2026, is a testament to improving market fundamentals.
The secret? Mortgage spreads have improved significantly from their 2023 peak levels. Historically ranging from 1.60% to 1.80%, spreads closed last week at 1.82%—near normal levels. If spreads matched 2023 peaks, rates would be 1.29% higher, pushing mortgage rates to 7.48%. Instead, improved spreads are keeping rates lower for longer, giving buyers sustained access to more affordable financing.
For 2026, HousingWire forecasts mortgage rates between 5.75% and 6.75%, with the 10-year yield fluctuating between 3.80% and 4.60%. We're tracking right within these ranges, providing predictability buyers desperately need.
Inventory Growth: More Homes, More Opportunities
Housing inventory continues its positive trajectory as the market normalizes. While the year-over-year growth rate has moderated from the explosive 33% seen in mid-2025 to a more sustainable 9.81%, we're still adding homes to the market consistently. This healthy growth indicates a market that remains seller-favorable, yet is considerably more balanced than in recent years, moving away from the extreme lows of the past.
As of the week ending January 23, 2026, current active inventory stands at 697,868 homes, up from 695,628 the prior week. For the same week last year, inventory was 635,529 homes. More importantly, new listings data for 2026 has been encouraging, with last week showing 53,920 new listings compared to 50,946 in 2025. The current market supply sits at 2.6 months. The goal remains reaching 80,000 new listings per week during peak periods, establishing a healthy range of 80,000 to 100,000 weekly—the traditional benchmark for a balanced market.
9.81%
Inventory Growth Rate
Year-over-year increase maintaining healthy momentum
697K
Current Active Listings
697,868 homes as of Jan 23, up from 695,628 last week
54K
Weekly New Listings
53,920 listings last week, up from 50,946 in 2025
Price Dynamics: A Balanced, Healthy Market
Approximately one-third of homes are experiencing price reductions, a statistic that might sound concerning but actually reflects a healthy, functioning market. The price-cut percentage stood at 33.6% of active listings last week, virtually unchanged from the 33% recorded in 2025. This consistency, despite rising inventory, demonstrates market stability rather than distress, underscoring that price-cut activity has not increased.
The median list price currently stands at $419,900, essentially flat compared to $421,000 last year. Price adjustments are a natural response to increased inventory and evolving buyer expectations. Many sellers are strategically adjusting their asking prices as they recognize current market realities, while buyers benefit from renewed negotiating power. This dynamic creates opportunities for skilled negotiation and strategic positioning on both sides of the transaction, contributing to a balanced market that is neither overheated nor distressed.
The critical difference in 2026 is context: we're observing how supply and demand respond to mortgage rates near 6%, rather than the 7%+ rates that characterized 2022-2025. Lower rates mean buyers can afford more home, which naturally supports pricing even as sellers become more flexible. This balance—not too hot, not too cold—defines the current environment. The Market Action Index is at 35.1, indicating seller-favorable conditions while remaining closer to neutral. Furthermore, absorbed properties totaled 70,575 last week while new listings reached 53,920, clearly showing that inventory is being processed efficiently.
$419,900
Median List Price
Essentially flat year-over-year, reflecting market stability
33.6%
Price Reductions
Consistent with 2025, indicating no increase despite rising inventory
35.1
Market Action Index
Seller-favorable, yet closer to a balanced neutral market
Meet Your Texas Realtor with JPAR Real Estate
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Robert Wallgren
JPAR Realty
North Texas & Hill Country
Hello! I'm Robert Wallgren, your dedicated Texas real estate expert with JPAR Realty. As a longtime resident who's helped countless families find their perfect home here, I understand both the excitement and challenges of buying or selling in today's dynamic market.
My deep connections with local Lenders to get you financed as well as builders, school administrators, inspectors, and community leaders mean you'll have insider access to everything North Texas and the Texas Hill Country offer. Whether you're relocating from across the country or moving across town, I'm committed to making your transition as smooth and successful as possible.
In a market that's shifting and normalizing, experience and connections matter more than ever. I don't just know the data—I know the neighborhoods, the schools, the hidden gems, and the market nuances that make the difference between a good decision and a great one.
Why Clients Choose to Work With Me
Local Market Expertise
Deep knowledge of North Texas and Hill Country markets, including neighborhood trends, school districts, and emerging opportunities that aren't visible in online searches.
New Construction Specialist
Direct relationships with local builders and access to pre-market inventory, floor plan customizations, and builder incentives that maximize your investment.
Personalized Relocation Support
Comprehensive guidance covering schools, commutes, community amenities, and lifestyle fit—ensuring your new home matches your family's unique needs.
Expert Negotiation Skills
Strategic advocacy that secures favorable terms, whether navigating multiple offers, inspection negotiations, or pricing strategies in shifting market conditions.
Comprehensive Transaction Management
Meticulous attention to every detail from contract to closing, ensuring deadlines are met, documents are accurate, and potential issues are resolved proactively.
Broad Professional Network
Trusted connections with lenders, inspectors, contractors, insurance agents, and service providers who deliver exceptional results for my clients.
Data-Driven Insights From Trusted Industry Sources
My market analysis draws from the most authoritative sources in real estate intelligence, ensuring you receive accurate, timely information that informs smart decisions. I continuously monitor data from HousingWire, the National Association of Realtors (NAR), Houston Association of Realtors (HAR), Texas Real Estate Research Center, Zillow, Redfin, Realtor.com, and Mortgage News Daily to provide comprehensive market perspective.
These resources offer everything from national trends and regional forecasts to hyperlocal inventory data and pricing analytics. By synthesizing insights across multiple platforms, I identify patterns and opportunities that single-source analysis might miss. This multi-dimensional approach ensures you're making decisions based on the full picture, not just one angle.
HousingWire Market Tracker
Weekly insights on mortgage rates, purchase applications, and pending sales trends
NAR & Texas RERC
National and state-level data on sales volume, pricing, and inventory dynamics
Zillow, Redfin, Realtor.com
Real-time listing data, buyer search behavior, and competitive market analysis